Update: ESA Says Kosmos 482 Likely to Have Landed

Launched on 31 March 1972, the Soviet probe Kosmos 482 was part of the USSR’s Venera programme aimed at exploring Venus. However, a failure in the rocket’s timer during launch meant the spacecraft never left Earth orbit. Instead, it was stranded and has circled the planet ever since.

The probe’s descent module, built to survive Venus’s harsh conditions, has now returned to Earth.

Welcome back, Kosmos 482

updated on 12 May

After more than 50 years in orbit, the Soviet-era Kosmos 482 probe reentered Earth’s atmosphere on 10 May, crashing into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta, Indonesia. According to Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, reentry occurred at 2:24 a.m. ET (0624 GMT / 9:24 a.m. Moscow time). The probe appears to have fallen harmlessly into the sea.

Meanwhile, in Poland…

Update 10th May 0635 UTC

ESA reports that radar over Germany picked up echoes corresponding to Kosmos 482 at 0430 and 0602 UTC.

Observers between Peru and Poland have been posting photos of the craft streaking across the sky.

Update 9th May

ESA predicts that Kosmos 482 will reenter the atmosphere at 06:37 UTC (08:37 CEST) on 10th May, +/- 3.28 hours. The areas where the probe might land are shown in the graphic below:

What Makes Kosmos 482 Different?

Kosmos 482 is not just any piece of space debris. Its descent module was specifically designed to handle the extreme pressure and heat of Venus’s atmosphere. It weighs about 495 kilograms and is encased in a one-metre-wide titanium shell. Because of this robust design, there’s a real chance it could survive the plunge through Earth’s atmosphere intact.

Despite being fitted with a parachute for its original Venus landing, it’s unlikely that system will function after over 50 years in space. If the capsule does survive reentry, it will likely hit the ground or ocean at speeds up to 150 miles per hour.

Possible Impact Zone

Marco Langbroek, a space situational awareness expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, has been tracking Kosmos 482. According to him, its orbital inclination of 51.7 degrees means it could come down anywhere between 52° North and 52° South latitude. This includes much of the populated world, from southern UK to parts of New Zealand.

“Even at the time of the reentry the model uncertainties… typically are half an hour or more. As the satellite is moving at 7.8 km/s [17,448 mph] in its orbit this uncertainty… means uncertainties of thousands of kilometers,” Langbroek explained.

Solar activity is contributing to the unpredictability, as it influences atmospheric density and drag on the probe.

How Dangerous Is It?

Langbroek has been monitoring Kosmos 482 for years, along with colleague Dominic Dirkx. They used Delft University’s TUDAT modelling software to estimate the probe’s descent. According to Langbroek:

“The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero. With a mass of just under 500 kg and 1-meter size, risks are similar to that of a meteorite impact.”

In other words, while there’s a chance the module could cause damage, it is relatively small and no greater than that posed by the many meteorites that fall to Earth each year.

Previous Incidents and Legal Responsibility

Kosmos 482 originally broke into four pieces. Two of those fell over New Zealand just days after launch in 1972, leaving scorch marks and indentations in farmland. The Soviet Union never acknowledged ownership, so the debris remained with the locals.

Under international space law, Russia, successor to the USSR, remains responsible for the spacecraft. However, Kosmos 482 is now considered general space debris.

Watching and Waiting

As its final descent nears, satellite trackers like Langbroek will continue to monitor Kosmos 482’s path. Given the vast area it could fall in and the relatively low risk, the world will simply have to wait and see where this long-lost Soviet lander ends up.

“You never know, there always is a small chance that it ends up in someone’s backyard,” Langbroek said.