What Took Down Starlink Satellites? New Report Points To A Solar Event Called The Terminator

In February 2022, SpaceX lost dozens of Starlink satellites within days of launch. Initially, a geomagnetic storm was blamed for this loss. However, new research points to a more complex solar phenomenon, the ‘terminator,’ as an essential or even primary cause.

Starlink Satellites Loss: A Quick Recap

On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites to add to its growing constellation in low-Earth orbit. Within days, however, most of them failed to reach their intended orbit, burning up in the atmosphere and showering the Caribbean with debris.  

As the company reported in its official semi-annual report to the FCC on the status of the satellite constellation for the period from 1 December 2021 to 31 May 2022, ‘…due to the geomagnetic storm, the satellites experienced increased atmospheric drag, approximately 50% greater than all previous launches. As a result, although SpaceX could bring 11 satellites to a stable position sufficient to survive the storm, the remaining 38 satellites entered the Earth’s atmosphere and collapsed.’

The incident was one of the most significant failures of the Starlink project, resulting in significant economic damage estimated at $100 million.

At the same time, it puzzled scientists and sparked a wave of investigations to discover the event’s true causes.

Primary Version of the Incident’s Cause: Geomagnetic Storms

According to the official version, a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) occurred two days before the launch in the Earth’s magnetic field. This was not a major space weather event and therefore did not cause much concern for the Spacex team.

However, as the Earth passed through the CME trail, several sputtering G1-class geomagnetic storms occurred. This caused the thermosphere to heat and expand, resulting in a change in mass density at a fixed altitude of 210 kilometres, where the Starlink satellites were at the time.

According to the researchers, this increase in thermospheric density caused the drag to be higher than expected, and the satellites lost altitude rapidly.

However, not everyone agreed with this assumption. Further comprehensive analyses by independent researchers showed that several factors were responsible for the loss of satellites.

Enter The Termination Event Hypothesis

The sudden atmospheric changes that led to the loss of the Starlink satellites now appear to be more complex than previously thought.

Recent research suggests that the actual cause may not have been simply a geomagnetic storm, but a more complex and fundamental event within the Sun known as a ‘Termination Event’ or ‘terminator’.

This event marks the end of one solar cycle and the beginning of the next. During this transition, the magnetic fields of the old cycle rapidly disappear, giving way to new magnetic structures.

This sudden change can cause powerful and little-studied effects of space weather.

This hypothesis was voiced by space scientists Scott McIntosh and Robert Leamon of Lynker Space, Inc., which conducts research in solar, geomagnetic, and magnetospheric physics, which underlies the task of space weather forecasting.

Dr McIntosh was Deputy Director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and has over twenty-five years of experience in solar and astrophysical research. He currently serves on the Space Weather Panel of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and leads its research sector.

What Is A ‘Termination Event’?

The Sun is known to operate on an 11-year cycle of activity (solar cycle), which is characterised by an increase and decrease in the number of sunspots, reaching a maximum during solar activity.

There is also a 22-year Hale cycle, during which the Sun’s magnetic field is reversed every 11 years.

During the Hale cycle, magnetic structures called ‘magnetic doughnuts’ form around 55 degrees latitude in both hemispheres and migrate toward the equator. When these bands meet at the equator, they cancel each other out in a dramatic event called a ‘terminator’.

This event is associated with rapid changes in solar activity, including a sudden increase in solar flux and atmospheric effects on Earth.

Why It Matters: Future Risks For Satellites

In the past decade, at least 52-54 satellites have been publicly documented as lost due to geomagnetic storms, with the overwhelming majority belonging to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, and a small number from Capella Space.

Hidden geomagnetic storms, especially those potentially related to Terminator events, can pose an unseen but serious threat.

Traditional means of monitoring solar activity may not sufficiently warn of these subtle atmospheric changes.

Better forecasting models that account for the Terminator event will be essential for satellite operators such as SpaceX, OneWeb, and Amazon’s Kuiper Project.