Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Strike The Moon In 2032, NASA Warns

Asteroid 2024 YR4, once feared for its potential to hit Earth, is now being watched closely for a different reason. New data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope shows that while Earth is safe, the tiny asteroid may collide with the Moon in 2032. This unexpected twist follows detailed infrared observations, which not only confirmed the asteroid’s size but also revealed a sharp increase in the odds of a lunar impact.

What Scientists Have Learned About 2024 YR4

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is one of the smallest asteroids ever to have its size directly measured. Webb’s observations revealed that the asteroid behaves differently from larger ones. Scientists think this could be due to its fast spin and a surface that lacks fine dust or sand. Instead, it may be covered in larger rocks, possibly around the size of a human fist or bigger.

Using both its Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), Webb captured detailed data of the asteroid’s surface and thermal properties.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Likely Impact The Moon

NASA originally estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on 22 December 2032. Just days later, that risk was downgraded to zero. However, new data suggest that while Earth is safe, the Moon may not be.

On 26 March, Webb carried out an emergency observation of the asteroid. Based on this and other ground-based tracking data, NASA has now doubled the estimated risk of a lunar impact. The chance of a Moon collision is now 3.8%, up from 1.8% in February.

“There is still a 96.2 per cent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon,” NASA explained in a blog post. “In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.”

Updated Size Estimates From Infrared Data

Thanks to Webb’s infrared capabilities, scientists have also revised the asteroid’s estimated size. It’s now believed to be between 53 and 67 metres wide – comparable to a 10-storey building. Earlier estimates based on visible light ranged from 40 to 90 metres.

This updated size estimate provides a clearer understanding of 2024 YR4’s structure and potential impact.

What Would Happen If The Asteroid Hits The Moon?

If the asteroid does strike the Moon, it would not affect Earth. ESA explained, “If that [impact] happens, there won’t be any shockwaves felt on Earth and the Moon won’t crack in half. But it would leave a brand-new crater, and if we’re lucky, we might catch the exact moment it happens.”

NASA’s Noah Petro, project scientist for the Artemis 3 Moon mission, added:

“I think the only plausible astronomical event that could untether the Moon would be a large impact to the Moon that breaks it up.”

He explained that such a scenario is highly unlikely, and 2024 YR4 is far too small to cause that level of damage.

No Threat To Earth

The ESA’s Near Earth Objects Coordination Centre in Italy has closely monitored the asteroid, working alongside NASA and international scientists. After careful analysis, the team confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no threat to Earth now or in the future.

Continued Observations Ahead

While ground-based telescopes will no longer be able to track the asteroid after mid-April, Webb is set to observe it again in late April or early May. These continued observations will help refine predictions and track the asteroid’s trajectory with even greater accuracy.