Space Experts Sound The Alarm: China’s Megaconstellation Launch Is A Debris Time Bomb

The growing demand for communication satellites is fuelling China’s megaconstellation launch, which might consist of over 20,000 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). While this plan might be a step in the right direction for the future of communication, some analysts predict that it can also congest space with waste.

China Might Fuel Space Pollution With Their Megaconstellation Launch

China is currently working on its megaconstellation launch plans to send over 20,000 satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO). This launch effort officially kicked off in 2024 with plans to launch over a thousand more satellites over the coming years.

Two constellations are the Thousand Sails (Qianfan Jigui geared towards more civilian usage) and Hulianwang W. Digui (government) constellations.

The main concern for analysts like Jim Shell is the fact that with plans to launch over 20,000 satellites into space, China might pollute low Earth orbit with large spent rocket stages.

Jim Shell is a space domain awareness and orbital debris expert who works with Novarum Tech. In a recent post on X, he aired his concerns regarding the coming launches for the China megaconstellation launch and how they might impact space.

From the post, we learn that the orbital debris mass in LEO will be dominated by PRC upper stages in short order unless something changes.” This debris will be from the upper stages of the rockets (likely the Long March rockets) that China will use to send these satellites into space.

He also illustrated “the altitudes of the rocket bodies from the initial megaconstellation launches.” From the graphics, we see that the previous launches in China’s megaconstellation aren’t compliant with the 600km altitude under the legacy 25-year orbital lifetime rule.

Most of the rocket’s debris is at the 700-800km altitude. If future launches follow this trend, then we might see serious cluttering of debris in Earth’s low orbit region.

China’s Megaconstellation Launch Needs To Handle Space Debris Responsibly

Jim Shell isn’t the only one raising these concerns on how the Chinese megaconstellation launch is handling debris. Victoria Samson, Chief Director of Space Security and Stability at the Secure World Foundation, is also calling for the country to sit up and handle space debris properly.

In a recent interview with SpaceNews, she says regarding this issue, “Generally speaking, this is not good for anyone who wants to continue to receive benefits from the use of space.” She adds that “Pieces of debris at that altitude will stick around for years if not decades.”

She refers to how China is handling this space waste as being “incredibly irresponsible” as it can lead to problems in space. However, all hope isn’t lost as this constellation launch is still at its early stage so adjustments can be made in time.

Some of these adjustments can include China preparing active debris removal (ADR) missions to declutter their second-stage debris from space. Also, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, says that the Chinese Long March 5B rocket is better at handling debris.

China might also be working on developing a way to handle space debris. However, there needs to be some insight into how it plans to handle space debris as it works to keep space free of second-stage debris.