Meteorologists Sound the Alarm: Weather Forecasting in the U.S. Is About to Get Worse

Due to mass layoffs and staff shortages, the National Weather Service is forced to halve the number of weather probe launches in eight northern regions of the United States. Meteorologists are sounding the alarm – this will inevitably lead to a deterioration in the accuracy of weather forecasts, jeopardising the economy and even people’s lives.

DOGE Is Coming: The Weather Forecast Is Under Threat

Last Thursday, the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) issued a notice cancelling weather probe launches in Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota.

In addition, the weather service said it has reduced launches from two to one per day at Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming. The reason cited is ‘staff shortages’ due to massive job cuts at the National Weather Service (NWS).

According to former agency executives, this will degrade the accuracy of forecasts and create additional threats due to poor awareness when the severe weather season arrives.

Earlier this year, DOGE cut 1,029 NOAA jobs (10 percent of the workforce).  The government sent letters stating that laid-off probationary employees would receive their salaries but should not go to work. This is part of a 25 per cent staff reduction from January 2025 under the Trump administration.

Earlier this month, the weather agency announced a reduction in the use of weather probes in Albany, New York and Gray, Maine, and at the end of February, it stopped launches in Kotzebue, Alaska.

That leaves 11 announced sites with reduced or eliminated balloon observations, or about one in nine launch sites, including parts of the Pacific and Caribbean.

Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Tomer Burg estimate that 14 of the 83 balloon sites in the U.S., or 17 per cent, conduct only partial or no launches. This includes two stations that don’t launch because of helium shortages and a third hampered by coastal erosion.

Meteosondes In The Sky: Who And How Make Weather Forecasts For You?

Meteorologists have regularly collected atmospheric data from balloons for almost 100 years, since the 1930s.

Accurate and timely weather forecasts helped American aircraft pilots win the air battle over Europe during World War II. The constant launches of weather probes in the Arctic played an important role.

Weather balloons are launched twice daily at about 100 locations across the country.  

The entire process, from filling the balloon with helium or hydrogen, equipping it with a sensor, to preparing it for launch and checking that the radiosonde is not dragging on the ground, takes one to one and a half hours.

The balloons rise to an altitude of 100,000 feet and float in the air. During that time, sensors called radiosondes, which hover about 20 feet below them, collect readings such as ambient temperature, dew point value, humidity, barometric pressure, and wind speed and direction.

Meteorologists track the data for a couple of hours before the balloon drops back to the ground. This amounts to about four hours of work for one person.

The data is then passed on to forecasters, who use computer models to create predictions about the weather and its potential dangers.

According to an Associated Press data analysis, from 2021 to 2024, NOAA had an average of just one balloon launch failure per day among regularly reporting weather stations.

Experts Warn: Cutting Weather Balloon Launches Is A Mistake

Eight scientists, meteorologists, and former top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the weather service’s parent agency, said, ‘This reduction is a mistake.’

University of Oklahoma environment professor Renee McPherson said: ‘Frankly, it’s just dangerous. ‘For those of us east of the Rocky Mountains, this is probably the worst time of year,’ McPherson said. ‘This is the time of year when we have some of the biggest tornado outbreaks, especially as we get closer to April and May.’

‘Not good,’ Ryan Maue, who was NOAA’s chief scientist at the end of President Donald Trump’s first term, wrote in an email. ‘We should not degrade our weather system by skipping balloon launches. Not only does it embarrass NOAA, but stopping weather balloon launches will worsen America’s weather forecasts.’

‘The more data we can input into our weather models, the more accurate our forecasts, but I can’t speculate on the magnitude of future impacts,’ weather spokeswoman Susan Buchanan said in an email.

‘The special thing about weather probes is that they give you information you can’t get any other way,’ said D. James Baker, former head of NOAA during the Clinton administration. During his tenure, he had to cut costs at the agency but refused to cut back on observations such as weather probes. ‘It’s a necessary part of the forecasting system,’ he said.

The Role Of Weather Balloons In Accurate Forecasting

Former National Weather Service director Elbert ‘Joe’ Friday said weather probes provide ‘detailed data on lower atmospheric levels and humidity that can determine whether the atmosphere will be high enough to produce severe storms and how intense they might be.’

In addition, critics argue that the cuts reflect broader reductions in NOAA’s mission rather than efficiency measures.

What Will The Cuts In Meteorological Services Entail?

All 10 announced reductions in weather probe launches come from locations in the northern United States, coinciding with the severe weather season in spring. AccuWeather predicts it will include 75-350 tornadoes monthly (March-May 2025).

Therefore, meteorologists say that insufficient atmospheric observations could have serious consequences. Less data could shorten tornado warning times, putting the public at risk.

For example, the 13-16 March tornado outbreak resulted in death and destruction, again highlighting the importance of accurate forecasting.

At the same time, data from balloons cannot be fully replicated by satellites or radar, which can lead to less accurate storm tracking.

Satellites do a good job of getting the big picture; ground-based measurements and radar show what’s happening on Earth. Still, weather probes provide the key information for forecasting – atmospheric indicators.

Eventually, despite reducing the frequency of regular balloon launches, the NWS said it would conduct notable balloon launches during critical weather events, such as severe storms or tornado outbreaks, to provide important atmospheric data.

Data collected from commercial aircraft (AMDAR) that measure atmospheric conditions during flights will also be used more frequently, as will innovative alternatives such as sustainable, reusable gliders that can collect atmospheric data more cost-effectively than traditional radiosondes.

Conclusion

DOGE’s focus on staff efficiency has led to structural gaps in weather forecasting, prioritising short-term savings over public safety and long-term sustainability. 

Although DOGE is committed to reducing costs, experts argue that the cuts could result in multi-billion-dollar losses from preventable disasters and economic disruptions.