Can Eutelsat Replace Starlink For Ukraine? Technical and Business Questions

The threat of Starlink being shut off over Ukraine made headlines worldwide. The rumour of it has sent Europe searching for alternatives, and in particular the Eutelsat OneWeb constellation. To what degree is that possible today and tomorrow?

Starlink is not the only satellite communications provider covering Ukraine, and some such providers were in the Ukrainian market before the full-scale Russian invasion of 24th February 2022. Viasat’s KA-SAT network was successfully targeted in the pre-dawn hours of the 24th; Ukrainian government access was effectively shut down during this crucial time.

Technically, can Eutelsat come to the rescue?

The European alternative to Starlink is currently Eutelsat’s OneWeb offering. Eutelsat’s OneWeb 630-satellite Gen 1 constellation has been complete since 2023, and the next constellation, in GEO, is being put in place. It’s the largest such constellation under a European commercial entity’s control. 

The media has made much of whether Eutelsat can help replace Starlink, but there has been rather little about the technical capacity. One examination of Eutelsat’s capacity can be found in an article by LinkedIn user Carlos Placido, who plugged footprint data that Eutelsat and SpaceX provided the U.S. government into the Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit (NCAT). In his article, Placido states that Starlink can provide 23-490 times the capacity that its competitor has over Ukraine. He writes that while Eutelsat can make available up to 11Gbps over Ukraine depending on the positions of the satellites over Ukraine, Starlink can bring up to 2.7Tbps to bear.

Is the Eutelsat constellation out of reach?

One feature of Starlink is the rather low-cost, relatively simple kit on the ground side. Eutelsat previously targeted a different set of users, so the setup is bulkier and more expensive at up to $10,000 according to Reuters. That said, the company is already in the Ukrainian market. Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke told Bloomberg in an interview that the company could double its presence in Ukraine with the thousands of ground links it has available in Europe, though matching Starlink’s volume would take months. Talks are already in progress with suppliers for more equipment, she said.

Per aspera ad contractus

Eutelsat’s stock price has rocketed since the first hint that Starlink service could be hindered. Discussions of project funding have also jumped in both number and intensity. 

Elon Musk has pushed back against hints by others that Starlink service is in danger. At the same time, he has argued over his X platform with the Polish government, which has a $50 million contract for Starlink services in Ukraine. The Poles have said that with treatment such as this, they are open to looking for alternative providers.