If Climate Change Persists Space Debris Could Make LEO Inoperational An MIT Study Finds

The continuous issue of space debris may have hit critical grounds after an MIT study identified that climate change could hinder burn up upon reentry. A shrinking atmosphere has become a reality due to greenhouse gas emissions and other Earthly pollutants. As a result, the lack of atmospheric drag may increase the risk of satellites colliding with space junk floating in low Earth orbit (LEO) if the study’s findings materialise.

Therefore, LEO could become a satellite graveyard if climate change progresses. This could spell disaster for satellite operators and the dependence Earth has on LEO communications, navigation, and services. “The upper atmosphere is in a fragile state as climate change disrupts the status quo,” Lead author William Parker, a graduate student in AeroAstro, remarked. 

What’s Happening To Earth’s Atmosphere & Why Satellites Are In Danger

Aerospace engineers from MIT surveyed the effects of carbon emissions and how they’re influencing the shrinkage of Earth’s atmosphere. Their main concern being the thermosphere. The results presented a stark reality for satellite operators. Over time, greenhouse gasses will change the behaviour of Earth’s near-orbit environment, resulting in less atmospheric drag engendered from thermospheric contractions and decreased density. 

Atmospheric drag is the force that hauls inoperational satellites out of orbit, lowering their altitude “where they will encounter air molecules and burn up”. This process helps keep LEO sustainable by removing old satellites that could collide with operational satellites. While not foolproof, it’s Earth’s way of contributing to deorbiting old satellites – something space organisations are adding to their operations.

However, with limited drag, these matured satellites will continue to proliferate, causing a problem for all satellites in LEO – including the International Space Station and constellations like Starlink, OneWeb, and so on. MIT says: “over time, [atmosphere shrinkage] will reduce the number of satellites that can sustainably operate there.” Adding: “extended lifetimes for space junk… will litter sought-after regions for decades and increase the potential for collisions in orbit.”

How Long Does MIT Say LEO Has Until It Becomes A Space Debris Cemetery?

Through a range of simulations, engineers identified that carbon emissions are drastically influencing the upper atmosphere. Additionally, MIT said “orbital dynamics” will shift after estimating “the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit.” As a result, the study shows that by 2100, Earth’s busy orbital highway could see a 50 to 66% inhospitality rate resulting from pollution. 

What this means is satellites will have an ever present risk of colliding with space debris. In actuality, this is already a risk that satellite providers are having to grapple with. With space debris and orbital sustainability remaining a hot topic, will the study push agencies and commercial organisations to increase the rate of deorbiting their old satellites? 

Is Earth Doing Enough To Make Space Sustainable?

The hazard space debris presents isn’t new. Space organisations and government agencies have highlighted the issue of space junk for a number of years. The European Space Agency has their Zero Debris Charter by 2030 commitment. The UK Space Agency has pumped millions of pounds into spacecraft deorbiting missions. And organisations such as Astroscale have built their business strategy around sustainable space operations. But is this enough? 

With MIT’s new study in play, the space debris problem is evolving. While this was a rare occurrence, just recently, a piece of space junk came crashing down into Kenya. SpaceX has also had to grapple with a spate of debris issues post Starship and Falcon 9 launches. There are also significant concerns that Icelandic waters could become contaminated by rocket parts after launching from SaxaVord in the UK. As such, MIT’s study will almost certainly have hairs raised as satellite operators continue to battle the risks space junk poses.