Is Space the Next Battlefield? Chatham House Forecasts Geopolitical Uncertainty for the Space Industry

“Business not quite as usual on the threshold of a new economic era”, says Chatham House.

On 5th March, experts converged at London’s Chatham House for the think tank’s first Space Security Conference, one of the first ever space-related events of its kind of the institution.

Insights from Chatham House’s Space Security Conference

Spokespeople drew lines between familiar points of economic positivity and the investability of space, and the overarching shadows of geopolitical upheaval that were poised to upend economic stability.

A keynote delivered by Doctor Paul Bate, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Space Agency, was very much the former, emphasising the nature of space as the foundation of modern connectivity, foregrounding global economics, security, and culture.

“The UK has the only vertical, licensed spaceport in Western Europe, preparing to host its first vertical launches later this year,” he told attendees. “The UK’s launch capabilities, once operational, will provide Britain with access to space, expertise in rocketry manufacture, and launch operations. Securing our own capability isn’t just self-interest, it’s also about being a valuable ally and partner of choice.”

He went on to enthuse his faith in British multilateralism in space, and the strengthening of economic and scientific ties between G7 nations.

Dr. Bate made the same promise of UK-based sovereign launch by the end of the year last March at Space-Comm 2024 in Farnborough.

Recalling a rather imperial analogy of the British invention of the chronograph and its wider effect on maritime economic and military stability for the British Empire, he suggested British space innovation could have a similarly outsized effect.

“We must learn, once again, to plant trees whose shade we do not expect to sit, by investing today in space infrastructure that will underpin the future global economy, we are setting the foundation for UK prosperity and influence, not just into the next decade, but into the next century.”

His counterpart, Ricardo Conde, president of the Portuguese Space Agency, cast a less saccharine tone.

“The eruptions to the global economic order have strong implications for space,” he said in the following panel. “We are observing the failure of multilateralism. The UN is no longer an organisation of authority. … Europe has a great opportunity ahead of it. New plans for security and defense will mean big things in space. Now’s the time to reinforce those investments in Europe.”

Prevailing British exceptionalism?

Dr Bate was eager to welcome the presumed strengthening of the transatlantic “special relationship” between the UK and US reported by the Labour government and reinforced by positive gesturing in the form of remarks from President Trump.

“The US is our premiere ally,” he insisted, when an audience member asked about reliability of British/American relations. “We’re fundamentally connected in space across science, commerce, and military. We’re also a founding member of the European Space Agency and remain in the big four of its financiers.”

In his keynote, he touched upon British participation in the NATO StarLift program, which aims to establish and synergize a network of launch options within the power bloc. Another successful program referenced were collaborations between UKSA and the National Space Operations Center (NSpOC) on space situation awareness which reported in 2024 that UK-licensed satellite operators had been warned of over 22,000 potential in-orbit collision risks. “This is a concrete example of civil/defence cooperation to protect UK national security,” Bate said.

The picture wasn’t all rosy though. Bate couched his enthusiasm in contrast to what remains at stake in the sector.

“The loss of global navigation satellite systems, particularly positioning, navigation, and timing systems can disrupt shipping which moves up to 95% of UK imports and exports. A 7-day PNT outage would cost the UK economy £7.6 billion – over a billion pounds a day.”

Sobering realities at Chatham House

In ensuing panels at Chatham House, certain researchers and representatives of international bodies were willing to address more critical topics.

Juliana Suess, an associate of the German institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Munich-based advisory group for the German Bundestag, warned that Russia and China are both developing counter space weaponry rapidly, but must be understood separately.

“China is now able to conduct targeting proximity manoeuvres in geostationary space, potentially doing physical damage or listening in,” Suess said. “They aren’t quite unseen, but they’re very good at hiding until after the fact. That’s something to be very concerned about.”

She also mentioned the sentiment that Russia was researching a spaceborne nuclear weapon. Russia has been known for encouraging such fearmongering, particularly related to nuclear anxiety, though the extent to which such talk can be underplayed as sabre-rattling is running thinner.

Elizabeth Seward, head of space strategy and market development at BAE Systems had a less dire point, drawing attention to the UK’s tendency to get left behind by adversaries and allies on intelligence data acquisition and distribution.

“When we don’t get this right, the UK is an entity taking data from everybody else,” she said. “Increasingly reliant on international allies who have invested in those capabilities. We need to be an equitable partner in this field, giving back as much data as we receive.”