Space Reshuffle: Why Did The Kremlin Fire The Head Of Roscosmos?

Roscosmos’ management recently experienced a RUPR, a Rapid Unexpected Personnel Reshuffle. The RUPR involved 69-year-old Yuri Borisov, who was dismissed from the post of the state corporation’s director general, and 39-year-old Deputy Transport Minister Dmitry Bakanov, who was appointed his successor. The two corresponding decrees from President Vladimir Putin were published on the Kremlin website on the morning of 6th February.

‘Everything Happened In One Evening’

Nothing could have foreshadowed such upheavals on Wednesday, 5 February: Yuri Borisov, head of Roscosmos, and the governor of the Perm Region held a ceremony at the Proton-PM plant to open a new production facility where engines for the Angara family rockets will be manufactured.

Putin did not comment on his decision during the day, and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said there were no legal claims against Yuri Borisov. ‘The rotation is made; the corporation needs to develop dynamically,’ he explained.

Asked whether the Russian president plans to meet with the new head of the space state corporation, Peskov said, ‘So far, there is no meeting in the next few days, but, of course, the president regularly receives reports from Roscosmos on how things are going there.’

Most Roscosmos employees only became aware of the change in the head of the state corporation on the morning of 6 February. ‘Everything happened in one evening,’ RBC quoted the source.

There is no word on where Borisov will go to work after his dismissal.

However, changes in the management of Roscosmos and the industry enterprises are already gaining momentum. For the last information, as of early Thursday, the following has already been known.
Alexander Bloshenko, executive director for advanced programmes and science, has left the corporation. There has been no official announcement yet; they have only posted on social networks.
It also reported the resignation of the first Deputy Director General, Andrei Yelchaninov. According to the latest reports, Sergey Koblov, director general of the Central Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering, and Dmitry Yaryomenko, director general of the Lavochkin Scientific and Production Association, have also left their posts.

Roscosmos Management Under Yuri Borisov: How Is It Remembered?

Borisov took the chair of the head of Roscosmos on 15th July 2022, succeeding Dmitry Rogozin. The latter led the state corporation the most extended – more than four years since 24 May 2018. As head, Yuri Borisov was not as colourful a figure as his predecessor.

Before joining Roscosmos management, Borisov served as deputy prime minister for the military-industrial complex since 2018. Before that, he was deputy defence minister Sergei Shoigu for almost six years, starting in 2012. In the ministry, he oversaw military-technical support of the armed forces.

As head of the state corporation, Borisov was supposed to reform the Russian space industry. One of the main expectations was that Roscosmos’s work would be commercialised.

Several decisions were made under his leadership and participation, including amendments to an industry law establishing a fee for state agencies to pay for Roscosmos’ remote sensing data.

In November, Borisov said Russia actively engages with the United States on the ISS and expects the station to continue operating until 2030. He linked the future of Russian manned cosmonautics to the prospective Russian Orbital Station (ROS), whose preliminary design was not approved until 2024.

During his tenure at Roscosmos, Borisov met personally with the President six times. The last meeting took place on 15 November 2024; a source close to the president’s administration called it a ‘farewell’ meeting for the head of the state corporation.

Borisov’s Successes And Achievements

Under his leadership, one of the state corporation’s significant events was the first launch of the Angara-A5 heavy rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome on 11th April 2024. The launch was considered a success. 

The state corporation attaches great importance to this launch, as the future of the Russian manned programme and the ability to mass-launch multi-satellite constellations are associated with the heavy rockets of the Angara family.

The Angara family launchers are currently inferior in payload capacity to the discontinued Proton-M rocket and the disposable rockets from the United States, China, and France. Despite the ongoing development of Angara family rockets since the 1990s, flight tests of the 37-tonne Angara-A5B to low-Earth orbit – the Angara-A5 LV with an oxygen-hydrogen upper stage (OHS) – have been repeatedly postponed and are now expected no earlier than the next decade.

On the most famous topic—interaction with NASA on the ISS — Borisov managed to maintain cooperation and ensure the extension of joint flights.

One of the tasks that Yuri Borisov also addressed was establishing cooperation between private enterprises and state companies. On 22 July 2024, Vladimir Putin signed a law on public-private partnerships in space activities.

Failures Of The Lunar Programme

One of the state corporation’s biggest failures was the Luna-25 Automated Interplanetary Station (AIS) mission, the first lunar mission in modern Russian history. On 19 August 2023, the spacecraft entered an uncalculated orbit and collided with the Moon’s surface. 

The station, launched on 11 August of the same year from Vostochny on a medium Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a Fregat upper stage, was supposed to land near Boguslavsky crater near the Moon’s south pole.

According to preliminary results of an interdepartmental commission investigating the causes of the Luna-25 accident, the probable cause of the station’s crash was the abnormal functioning of the onboard control complex associated with the failure to switch on the accelerometer unit, which did not allow the vehicle’s engines to be switched off in time.

Borisov said that the Luna-26 mission is scheduled to be launched in 2027, Luna-27 in 2028, and Luna-28 is planned to be launched by 2030 or later. However, according to Russian Academy of Sciences academician Lev Zelenyi, a final decision on the prospects of the lunar programme has not been made due to a lack of finances.

Failure Of The Satellite Programme

Borisov has repeatedly named the launch of mass production of satellites as his priority task as head of the state corporation.

Roscosmos’s main capacities for this purpose were proposed to be concentrated at two enterprises: Reshetnev Company in Zheleznogorsk (Krasnoyarsk region) and Semen Lavochkin Research and Production Association in Khimki (Moscow region). The state corporation requested investments in spacecraft production estimated at 50-60 billion roubles.

The first satellite was planned to be built by 2026.

In parallel with business participation, the state corporation plans to implement the Sphere programme, which involves launching hundreds of spacecraft. The project’s cost has been repeatedly revised and is estimated at at least 600 billion rubles ($6,4 billion).

However, under Borisov’s administration, the situation with the launch of a small spacecraft for Earth remote sensing and communications has deteriorated even more than it did under Rogozin. The industry was practically paralysed.

By the end of 2024, Russia will be in third place worldwide regarding satellite constellation renewal rates, significantly behind the United States and China but ahead of the European Union, India, Japan, and South Korea.

In addition, under him, Russia has continued to lag behind rival countries in terms of launch services. Last year, Russia launched only 17 rockets into space, although Borisov said in early 2024 that he planned to launch 40 space launches by the end of the year.

Change of Head of Roscosmos: What is Known About Possible Reasons?

Borisov’s dismissal coincides with the end of Russia’s Federal Space Programme for 2016-2025 and the need to make decisions about the future of the Russian rocket and space industry.

The fact that such drastic personnel reshuffles are made in one evening only shows that they are trying to solve production problems in the industry using administrative methods. And, most likely, it concerns the military sphere.

Some analysts note that Borisov’s possible resignation has been discussed since the autumn of 2024 when candidates were selected to replace him.

Rumours about Borisov’s resignation have been circulating for a long time. Some have attributed it to corruption, and others to personal and health problems. In addition, Borisov allegedly had uneasy relations with space industry enterprises.

But his official representative denies this information.

Space Long-Term Construction In The Centre Of Moscow

The most widespread version now is that Borisov was sent to resign due to uncertainty about the construction of the National Space Centre (NSC) on the territory of the Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center in Moscow – RBC reports citing a source.

Rogozin proposed building the NSC in 2018. President Vladimir Putin supported the project, which began in 2019 and was estimated to cost 25 billion rubles ($265,5 million).

This centre was to include the head offices of the leading organisations in the rocket and space sphere, design bureaus, research, and educational organisations. About 20,000 Roscosmos designers and engineers were expected to work there. The opening of the NSC was initially scheduled for 2022-2023; later, it was postponed to 2024.

According to the insider, ‘The cost of construction is increasing; accordingly, the distribution of territories is changing, and the issue of future operating costs is coming up.’

Instead of being a source of national pride and glory for the space industry, the unfinished centre has already become a black hole for the Roscosmos budget.

All this is happening against the backdrop of forecasts of ‘large losses’ for Roscosmos itself due to sanctions, refusal to cooperate internationally, and ‘the sluggishness of some enterprises in terms of their commitments’.

Is It Possible To Bring Criminal Cases Against Borisov After His Retirement?

The prospect of Borisov being criminally prosecuted following his work at Roscosmos has a non-zero probability. Among the possible reasons are the promotion of his sons’ commercial interests and failures in the space industry that led to multi-billion dollar budget losses.

Experts predict serious personnel reshuffles in Roscosmos and further proceedings on all key projects, from Sarmat to space programmes. Not only Borisov’s fate is in question, but also the possible consequences for the entire Russian rocket and space industry.

In addition, Borisov may soon be charged with embezzlement of state defence order funds. We are talking about the events of 2012-2014 when he held the deputy defence minister post.

Borisov’s name is mentioned in the testimonies of Defence Ministry officials involved in criminal cases during the investigation of embezzlement in the military department, including the failure to provide the army with the latest weapons and communications systems (for which Borisov was responsible). The source claims that the arrest of his colleagues in the Defence Ministry leadership and their testimony were decisive arguments in the personnel decision.

During the last conversation in the presidential administration, the former head of Roscosmos was not offered a new significant position and was warned of the possibility of criminal liability.

‘Borisov allegedly offered, in exchange for immunity guarantees, to form a BARS detachment called ‘Fountain’ with his funds and to lead it by taking part in the SWO (Special War Operation).

He received a reply that ‘no one is prohibited from displaying feelings of patriotism within the law and without any conditions’.

What Are Open Sources Not Writing About?

‘First of all, Putin’s anger was related to the absolute failure in the production and operationalisation of the Sarmat missile system, which is supposed to replace the outdated Voevoda (Satan), a source close to the government claims.

The problems with the operation of the liquid-propellant Sarmat missile have not been solved; there is no proper electronic-component base for mass production, the entire set of tests has not been carried out, etc.

Besides, Borisov received a lot of flak for cheating on the Oreshnik complex. It is a modernised Soviet medium-range missile system, ‘Pioneer’, or, according to NATO classification, SS 20. 

In the 1980s, this complex terrified Western Europe, and at the expense of “Pioneers,” the Soviet Union kept all strategically important objects located in capitalist countries under nuclear crosshairs.

However, at the end of the 1980s, the USA began to deliver new air defence systems, such as Patriot, to Europe, capable of shooting down the SS 20. 

Later, under disarmament agreements between the USSR and the USA on medium-range missiles, ‘Pioneer’ was destroyed.

After the collapse of the USSR, a few finished medium-range missile assemblies remained, from which the ‘Oreshnik’ was assembled.

New Head of Roscosmos: What is Known?

Dmitry Bakanov, the new head of Roscosmos, was born in 1985. According to his official biography, he graduated from the St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance with a degree in economics in 2007.

From 2006 to 2011, he held various positions in investment, banking, and IT companies and briefly headed the Postal Logistics Company (part of Russian Post).

In 2012-2019. Bakanov became president of Gonets Satellite System JSC.

The Gonets (Messenger) system is based on low-orbit spacecraft and was developed by order of Roscosmos. Its purpose is to provide communication services and communications for the GLONASS emergency alert system.

In 2017, Gonets created a joint venture with the British company OneWeb. This cooperation was planned to help provide internet access anywhere in Russia. In March 2022, OneWeb was to launch its satellites from Baikonur on a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket owned by Roscosmos. Still, the launch was cancelled after the start of Russian military aggression in Ukraine.

From 2019, Dmitry Bakanov worked at the Ministry of Transport as Director of the Digital Development Department, whose tasks included introducing innovations in the transport sector.  

In 2022, he was appointed Deputy Head of the Ministry. In this position, he supervised, among other things, the digital development of the transport complex: unmanned transport, the development of a Russian platform for vehicle cybersecurity, the gradual transition of all types of transport to electronic document management, etc.

People talk and write about Bakanov as a fan of his pedantic and modern work, having the ‘excellent student syndrome’. In the business community, the new head of Roscosmos has been nicknamed ‘’Handsome Man‘’ for his unconventional and striking appearance.

New Head of Russian Cosmos Gets Off To A Fast Start

‘Space is not just a word for me – it is a destiny,’ said the new head of Roscosmos Bakanov at a meeting where he was introduced to the staff.

He recalled being born in Baikonur, and his father was also involved in military space activities. The general director of the state corporation called the appointment a challenge.

Bakanov decided to start by setting goals. As soon as possible, he will meet with his deputies to identify ‘pain points’. After that, he will meet with the heads of the central enterprises and industries to understand their situation.

Industry experts have a favourable opinion of Dmitry Bakanov’s appointment.

Since Roscosmos’s main task is to build satellite constellations, and the new head has extensive satellite development experience and knows all market leaders’ problems, this appointment looks logical.

Former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin has already congratulated Bakanov on his appointment. ‘I sincerely congratulate Dmitry Bakanov on his appointment as head of Roscosmos! I know him as a very savvy specialist and a decent person.

Some political analysts believe that the Russian leadership had an idea of a young progressive industry leader who would find common ground with the Americans, notably Musk.

Challenges Facing a New Head

The Roscosmos management for Space Industry Development will face many challenges in the coming years.

According to Vitaly Egorov, aka “Green Cat”, a populariser of cosmonautics and author of the ‘Open Space’ blog, ‘Bakanov faces essentially the same problems that Borisov faced. This is overcoming the problem of sanctions because sanctions on space electronics have hit the space industry very hard. Now, Roscosmos must establish a constant supply of new electronic components and adapt spacecraft designs to them. And this is a huge and difficult job.’

The next task is to begin constructing the Russian orbital station, ROS. It must ensure the future of Russian-manned space exploration independent of its International Space Station partners, primarily the United States and Europe.

All this will be impossible without solving the task of Roscosmos’ economic recovery.

Roscosmos Reform: Mission Impossible?

Unlike in the US, where the space industry is very much commercial, space activities in Russia have traditionally been handled by state-owned companies. This ancient and archaic structure dates back to the Soviet Union.

It is challenging to teach such a system to work in the new economic structure, under new conditions, with sharply limited financial opportunities and reduced budgetary injections into various areas unrelated to the direct interests of the military.

In addition, under a usual approach, space activities at the state level should be handled by two independent bodies—supervisory and executive. One performs the tasks of space programmes, and the other controls the progress of their execution.

However, this is not the case in Russia, as both functions (execution and supervision) are combined in one corporation controlled by the state.  Under this model, Roskosmos sets its tasks and fails at them. For example, it is possible to set the task that everything was good and nothing bad happened.

The new head of Roscosmos will also inherit other unresolved tasks and problems. One big problem is the lack of clearly defined projects. For example, the project ‘Sphere’ changed from year to year, and now few officials can answer the question of how many satellites should be launched. The project’s fate of building a lunar station with China remains unclear. The status of projects such as the Yenisei superheavy rocket, the space tugboat, the Amur-LNG reusable methane rocket, or the reusable light-class cruise missile stage Irkut (Krylo-SV)  are also unclear.

The critical underfunding of the industry complements this whole set of problems.

Persistent Underfunding of Russian Space

Space has never been a toy for the poor. Developed countries invest billions of dollars in the space programme.  

Russia, on the other hand, is burning vast sums of money in a mad war against Ukraine instead of channeling it into industrial development, including the space industry, or into solving domestic social problems.

Thus, in a thousand days of war, Russia fired more than 10,000 missiles at Ukraine and spent almost $16 billion – equivalent to 10 years of annual budget expenditures for Russia’s Irkutsk region.

As The Wall Street Journal notes, each day of the war against Ukraine costs Russia about $300 million per day, and this amount does not take into account the toll taken by Russia’s large-scale rearmament and sanctions from Western countries.

At the same time, in 2024, Roscosmos’ budget totaled 285.95 billion rubles ($3 billion), which is about five times less than the official space budget of the People’s Republic of China and less than a tenth of the space budget of the United States.

Conclusions

The industry’s current problems can hardly be solved by just one person, even a talented person.

For this reason, most experts are sceptical about Bakanov’s ability to change the industry’s situation fundamentally.

This may well be understood by Bakanov himself, who, based on his portfolio, may bet on digitalisation and focus all his efforts on deploying satellite communications and remote sensing constellations.

Also, nothing is known yet about the new head of the state corporation and his team’s ability to launch structural reforms and start forming a new modern concept of space development.  

Will the personnel reshuffle at Roscosmos be for the better or the worse? Time will tell.