Boeing and Airbus Are Ditching Space? A New Space Capital Report Says It’s Coming

31st Jan 2025
Boeing and Airbus Are Ditching Space? A New Space Capital Report Says It’s Coming

A new Space Capital report has made some bold predictions for the commercial space sector. The 22-page report has outlined 10 predictions and explored three key pillars. Those being, infrastructure, distribution, and applications. However, it’s the forecast for the commercial sector that has drawn attention – particularly their prediction that Boeing and Airbus will vacate the space industry altogether. 

Space Capital said: “2025 could prove to be one of the most transformative years on record for the space economy. Between Musk’s close ties with the incoming President, an administration that is expected to be strongly pro-growth and anti regulation, and the emergence of Starship, we are on the verge of significant changes that will accelerate growth.” 

The 10 predictions the Space Capital report has prophesied

The commercial space market has grown exponentially. According to Mckinsey, the global space sector was worth $630 billion in 2023 – up from $460 billion in 2020. However, estimates indicate the industry could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, signaling major growth will continue with pace. In addition to the ubiquitous and necessitated applications space holds for daily life, the space sector has become a hot commodity for the public and private sector alike. But is a shakeup on the horizon? Here are the ten predictions Space Capital has made…

Space Capital report predicts shakeup in commercial sector.
Credit: Space Capital

Prediction 1: Bridging the commercial sector with public programs under Musk and Trump

With Donald Trump retaking the helm as the US’ returning president and Elon Musk being part of his administration team, Space Capital has predicted more commercial space companies will soon integrate with government projects. 

Further, Space Capital has contended that SpaceX will be the “greatest beneficiary” due to Musk’s connections in government and his position in the Department of Government Efficiency. However, they also outline that “others will benefit, most notably from a light touch regulatory regime for novel space activities overseen by Commerce.”

Prediction 2: SpaceX’s Starship will play a role in accelerating sector growth

In the first half of 2025, Starship is expected to finally reach orbit. Other expectations are that Starship will also commence more operational flights during this time. Notably, Space Capital said: “this vehicle will usher in the next phase of the space economy by accelerating growth in existing markets, enabling entirely new ones, and making existing infrastructure obsolete.” 

Space Capital also says testing has been rapidly accelerating, which will result in the rocket doubling its flight rate. Ultimately, this could occur due to minimal interference from the FAA due to Musk’s new-found government influence

Prediction 3: Is a human Mars mission coming sooner than we think? 

Space Capital says 2025 will see strategies for a human mission to the red planet come into play. The report’s creators believe SpaceX will most probably lead the charge due to NASA’s ongoing issues with their Artemis Moon mission. The report states Artemis will more than likely continue. However, a review could be on the horizon due to significant expenditure, blowing budgets, and remaining behind schedule.

Prediction 4: SpaceX could see some healthy competition

Space Capital said: “although SpaceX holds a dominant position in launch and satellite internet, 2025 will see competition emerge from several key players.” Some of those players being Amazon’s Kuiper which rivals Starlink, Apple enhancing their space-based iphone communications via $1.7 billion of funding, and China increasing their G60 and Thousand Sails constellation. Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket and Blue Origin’s New Glen launcher could also destabilise SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. However, SpaceX will see the rocket rivalry as less of a problem due to Starship set to “move the goal posts,” Space Capital said. 

Prediction 5: Defence spending set to increase due to China’s space activities

Space Capital said: “geopolitical strains continue to fuel an increase in U.S. Defense spending” due to ongoing feuds with China. They also believe spending is not going to slow down under Trump’s administration. As such, Space Capital report predicts that Resilient Global Positioning Systems and Alternative Positioning, Navigation and Timing will see a boost in funding. Space Capital also outlined that “the establishment of a Space National Guard is inevitable under the new administration and will further expand public-commercial alliances and technology integrations.”

Prediction 6: AI could play a more significant role in space activities

Space Capital says artificial intelligence (AI) could see an increase in space use over the course of 2025. The venture capital firm has estimated that AI will play a vital role in spatial intelligence, and continue to boom in popularity due to federal support and Trump’s government looking “to increase its lead over China”.

Prediction 7: The creation of a space roster to control orbital traffic

With global space projects constantly increasing, Earth’s orbit has become rather busy. China has begun launching more satellites to fulfil their G60 and Geely mega constellations. Musk also has plans to increase Starlinks footprint in orbit, so with the proliferation of satellites, global governments may need to start coordinating their in-space activities. 

Additionally, Space Capital believes tension between the US and China – along with the US’ ban on working with China directly – will increase privatisation. As a result, this could possibly cause a cancellation or restructure to the “Commerce Department’s TraCSS program”. 

Prediction 8: Climate change has swelled the need for in-space solutions

Due to the effects of climate change and natural disasters becoming more probable and frequent, private capital companies will be forced to expedite energy transition and climate-related programs. For example, Space Capital said MethaneSAT and FireSAT could be used to plug the hole caused by spending culls to Earth observation and climate monitoring. 

Prediction 9: Could Airbus and Boeing leave the space industry?   

2025 could see the end of an era for Boeing and Airbus’ space arm. Capital Space has prophesied that both organisations – who have been in the industry for years – will liquidate their space divisions due to “failing to keep up with the pace of change.” Yet, Space Capital says “these divestitures… mark a pivotal moment in the space economy, as it changes the competitive landscape, establishes a new power broker system, and creates new opportunities and risks in the government’s extended capabilities in space.” 

Prediction 10: Will space stations fall under SpaceX control?

Challenges with maintaining space stations, along with the significant costs, could result in Starship offering an “attractive alternative”, Space Capital report said. As a result, Space Capital predicts that: “between the practicality of Starship and Musk’s influence in the White House, there is a strong possibility that space stations will become another SpaceX domain.” With these predictions in mind, eyes will be glued to the industry this year to see which come to fruition. 

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