Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Hit Earth in 2032! NASA Updates Impact Risk
29th Jan 2025
After attracting the attention of the ATLAS asteroid impact early warning system, the Asteroid 2024 YR4 records a value of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This is the only asteroid with a non-zero Torino scale value and is to make contact with Earth by 2032.
Update 7 February: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Just Got More Dangerous
NASA has revised the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, increasing its chance of striking Earth in 2032 to 2.2%. The 180-foot-wide space rock remains under close scientific scrutiny as experts work to refine its trajectory. Further observations may lead to updates in the risk assessment.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 Might Crash Into Earth In The Next Seven Years
Back in 2004, an asteroid known as 99942 Apophis made an appearance with a Torino scale value of 4 hence earning it the nickname “the Doomsday Asteroid”. This makes 99942 Apophis the only space rock with a scale value higher than Asteroid 2024 YR4, making the latter quite concerning.
However, considering the change in the 99942 Apophis Torino scale value which significantly dropped after close observation of its orbit, the value of Asteroid 2024 YR4 might also change. In the meantime, the details gathered on the inbound asteroid show that it doesn’t possess the ability to end life on Earth as many might fear.
The size of this inbound asteroid is about 180ft wide, dwarfing it in comparison with 99942 Apophis. Back in 2004, the estimated size of 99942 Apophis was 1500ft (450 meters) making it a global concern.
Although Asteroid 2024 YR4 is the only asteroid with a non-zero scale value, it isn’t a big concern in the event of it hitting Earth by 2032. However, the orbit of this asteroid might change over the next seven years, hence dropping its Torino scale value below zero.
Impact Range
Scientists have mapped out a potential impact corridor for asteroid 2024 YR4, highlighting regions most at risk if the space rock were to strike Earth. According to current calculations, the asteroid’s trajectory follows an equatorial path, meaning the danger zone spans some of the world’s most densely populated areas.
Cities like Mumbai, major parts of the Arabian Peninsula, and African nations such as Nigeria and Ghana are within the potential impact range. The projected path also extends across the Atlantic Ocean, with possible landfall in South America — countries like Venezuela and Colombia appearing on the list of potential strike zones. While the odds of impact remain low, ongoing observations are refining these estimates, and scientists are closely monitoring any trajectory changes.
The Asteroid 2024 YR4 Orbit Posses An Issue For Observation
Astronomers need to keep an eye on the inbound space rock to track its movement and calculate its Torino scale value. However, there is an issue with the observation of the inbound space rock, and this has to do with its current orbit.
The details on this asteroid’s orbit point out that it is currently exceedingly faint at a stellar magnitude 23. Observing the asteroid at this magnitude is difficult, and reports say that its stellar magnitude will keep diminishing through February.
Towards the end of February, this asteroid is expected to be out of sight until it resurfaces. Future observations of this inbound asteroid will help us better understand the likelihood of its entering Earth’s atmosphere.
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