Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? What To Do When The Earth Falls From Beneath Your Feet
27th Jan 2025
Humanity has made such a big step forward in technical progress that sometimes it seems that we have tamed Mother Nature. However, it occasionally puts us in our place, reminding us who holds the reins. Earthquakes are one of the most destructive cataclysms that demonstrate our powerlessness against the forces of nature. We are unable to resist them, but can we predict earthquakes and prepare for them? In this article, you will learn more about the methods of forecasting these environmental hazards and define why the process is so difficult.
What Are Earthquakes And How Do They Occure?

Earthquakes are tremors or vibrations in the Earth’s surface that occur as a result of sudden shifts in tectonic plates and ruptures in the Earth’s crust or upper mantle.
Imagine the Earth’s crust as a giant mosaic of tectonic plates that constantly “float” on top of the mantle, the viscous layer beneath the crust. Plate movement is driven by convection currents in the mantle, which resemble the movement of water in a boiling kettle.
Plates can collide, move apart, or slide past one another. As a result of this interaction, enormous stress builds up at their edges. When the stress exceeds the internal strength of rocks, a sharp rupture occurs – an earthquake. The energy generated at the focus or hypocentre (the point inside the Earth where the earthquake begins) releases outward and spreads from the epicentre (the point on the Earth’s surface above the focus) in the form of seismic waves, which cause the Earth’s surface to vibrate.
How To Measure Earthquakes?
Seismographs measure the strength of an earthquake using two parameters: the magnitude scale, evaluating the amount of energy generated at the hypocentre, and the intensity scale, which describes the force of the earthquake’s impact on the Earth’s surface, people, buildings, and natural objects.
The main intensity scales used in Europe and the USA are EMS-98 and MMI (Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale). Both of them have 12-points and may be described as follows:
Intensity Scale | Damage Description | Magnitude of Earthquake in Richter Scale |
1 point | Not felt by humans. Detected only with seismic instruments | Below 1.0 |
2 points | Felt by a few individuals at rest on the upper floors of buildings | 1.0 – 2.0 |
3 points | Weak shaking felt by a few people indoors | 2.0 – 3.0 |
4 points | Hanging objects swing, glass rattles. Felt by many people | 3.0 – 4.0 |
5 points | Chandeliers swing, people awakened. Cracks appear in windows and plaster | 4.0 – 5.0 |
6 points | Some damage in buildings: fine cracks in plaster with small pieces falling off. Felt by all | 5.0 – 6.0 |
7 points | Considerable damage in buildings: cracks in walls, some chimneys are broken | 6.0 – 7.0 |
8 points | Damage in buildings: large cracks in walls, fall of ledges and chimneys. Landslides and cracks on mountain slopes | 7.0 – 8.0 |
9 points | Some buildings, walls, partitions, and roofs are destroyed. Collapses, rockfalls, and landslides in the mountains. Pipeline ruptures | 8.0 – 9.0 |
10 points | Destruction of buildings. Rails are bent. Landslides, rockfalls. Cracks in the ground | Over 9.0 |
11 points | Numerous cracks on the Earth’s surface, large mountain landslides. Destruction of buildings | Over 9.0 |
12 points | Large-scale relief changes. Huge rockfalls and landslides. Total destruction of buildings | Over 9.0 |
Can Earthquakes Be Predicted In Advance?
Unfortunately, despite all the advances in science and technology, there is no exact method on how to know if an earthquake is coming. The processes occurring in the earth’s crust are incredibly complex and multifactorial. They are influenced by many aspects that are difficult to take into account and analyse.
Why Can’t Earthquakes Be Predicted?
- Depth of the focus. Most earthquakes occur at great depth, which makes them difficult to study and monitor. It’s like trying to understand how a clock mechanism works without opening the watch case.
- Absence of clear precursors. Although some anomalies can be observed before earthquakes (for example, changes in water levels, strange behaviour of animals, gas emissions from the ground), they may be caused by other reasons, which does not allow for treating them as clear indicators of an approaching earthquake.
- Chaotic nature. Earthquakes are chaotic in their essence. Even the smallest changes in the initial conditions can lead to wildly different results, making long-term predictions nearly impossible. It’s like trying to predict which leaf will be the first to fall from the tree on a windy day.
And yet, people do not give up trying to protect themselves from the destructive tremors of the Earth. Japan has achieved particular success in predicting earthquakes – the country is considered most susceptible to seismic activity due to its geographical characteristics.
How Do The Japanese Predict Earthquakes?

Earthquakes are a common occurrence for the inhabitants of the Japanese islands. On average, Japan experiences about 1,500 tremors per year, and about 20-30 of them reach magnitude 6 or higher. To minimize the number of victims and destruction, Japan has developed complex earthquake prediction methods, categorized as short-term and long-term.
Short-Term Earthquake Prediction
Short-term earthquake forecast is an attempt to predict a seismic event over a short period, from a few hours to a few days.
Geophysical Observations
These precursors are not unambiguous and may be caused by other factors, but monitoring them is often useful for earthquake prediction.
- Groundwater level measurement: fluctuations in water levels in wells may be caused by the deformation of the Earth’s crust before an earthquake.
- Radon emission monitoring: radon is a radioactive gas that can be released from the Earth’s crust before an earthquake.
- EMF (Electromagnetic Field) measurement: some studies have found a connection between changes in the Earth’s electromagnetic field and the approach of earthquakes.
- Monitoring of animal behaviour: it’s believed that animals can sense the approach of earthquakes, although this has not been scientifically proven. However, animals have been repeatedly noted to behave strangely before tremors.
For example, in 1975, a few weeks before a devastating earthquake, residents of the Chinese city of Haicheng spotted lots of snakes leaving their burrows even though it was winter and the animals should have been hibernating. Strange behaviour of rats, birds, and livestock was also reported. And on the eve of the Indian Ocean earthquake in 2004, elephants in a national park of Sri Lanka became restless and moved to higher ground.
Seismic Observations
Over 4,200 seismometers located throughout Japan record even the slightest vibrations in the Earth’s crust, allowing quickly determine the location, depth, and strength of an earthquake. The data obtained is sent to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in real time.
Meteorologists also continuously analyse different types of seismic waves (P – primary, S – secondary) to determine the characteristics of an earthquake and its possible destructive power.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) System
If an earthquake is strong enough and poses a threat, the system automatically generates warnings distributed through various channels:
- Sirens: civil defence sirens and loudspeaker systems are used in cities and towns.
- Television and radio: warnings are broadcast on television and radio.
- Mobile phones: SMS messages or push notifications are sent to citizens’ mobile phones.
- Internet: Information about the earthquake is published on social networks and dedicated websites.
Japan’s warning system is one of the most advanced in the world, followed by ShakeAlert (the US) and SASMEX (Mexico). However, despite its great potential to save lives, such a quick earthquake forecast also has a significant drawback. Even if the hazard is predicted, there may be very little time (from minutes to seconds) for evacuation and other safety measures.
Long-Term Earthquake Forecast
This method involves determining the probability of earthquakes occurring in a given region over a long period, from several years to decades. How is the forecast made?
Analysis Of Historical Data
- Earthquake cataloguing: Japan has kept detailed earthquake catalogues for centuries. Studying this data can help reveal patterns in seismic activity and estimate the likelihood of future tremors.
- Paleoseismology: the study of geological deposits provides information about ancient earthquakes that occurred thousands of years ago.
- Geological research: involves studying faults within Earth’s crust alongside determining their activity and potential for generating strong earthquakes.
GPS Monitoring
An extensive network of GPS stations allows for tracking deformations of the Earth’s surface. Based on data received from satellites, each station determines its coordinates (latitude, longitude, and altitude) with high accuracy. Changes in these coordinates may indicate displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tectonic disturbances.
How Are The Long-Range Forecasts Of Earthquakes Useful?
Despite its limited accuracy, long-range earthquake forecasting enables more thorough preparation for natural hazards and minimization of their impacts.
Here are its main benefits:
- Earthquake-resistant construction: identifying seismically hazardous zones allows for the development of building codes, taking into account the potential strength of earthquakes. This helps reduce the risk that buildings could collapse.
- Zoning: helps plan the placement of critical infrastructure facilities (hospitals, power plants) in safer locations.
- Warning systems: long-term forecasts prove useful to spot the regions where the earthquake early warning systems need to be deployed.
- Earthquake preparedness: allows for providing the population with earthquake safety training and evacuation drills.
- Insurance: insurance companies use long-term forecast data to assess risks and formulate special insurance rates.
Thanks to forecasting, Japan has made significant progress in protecting its population from earthquakes. The number of victims is decreasing annually, and statistics prove this fact. If in 1923, the Great Kanto Earthquake, with a strength of 7.9 on the Richter scale, took the lives of over 140,000 people, then the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 led to significantly fewer victims (about 20,000 people) despite its large magnitude of 9. As for the victims of earthquakes and tsunamis caused by them over the past 10 years, the number of fatalities is now measured in thousands rather than hundreds of people.
Japan continues to improve its earthquake prediction methods and offers to share this experience with other countries located in seismically active zones.
How To Predict Earthquakes In Your Area?

Many areas of the planet are not located in zones of high seismic activity, although earthquakes still happen there. Fortunately, their amplitude usually does not exceed 6 on the Richter scale. Depending on your location, use local websites for predicting earthquakes to stay informed and know what to do in case of any hazards. In the UK, these are:
- British Geological Survey (BGS): the main source of information on the geology and seismicity of the UK. The site includes seismic hazard maps, data on past earthquakes, information on current activity and research.
- The UK National Risk Register: an official document assessing various risks facing the UK, including seismic. Provides information on the likelihood and possible consequences of earthquakes.
- BGS Earthquake Seismology: This BGS page provides information on recent earthquakes in the UK and their parameters.
- European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): A European centre monitoring seismic activity worldwide, including the UK. Provides interactive maps and earthquake data.
- ThinkHazard!: An online tool developed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) that allows you to assess the risk of various natural hazards, including earthquakes, for a specific location.
Common Tips On How To Protect Yourself From An Earthquake

- Install an earthquake alert app on your smartphone and subscribe to newsletters with earthquake news and other geological information. This will help you stay informed and prepared for such natural hazards.
- Prepare an emergency kit (water, food, first aid kit, flashlights, and documents).
- Stay away from buildings, trees, power lines, and other objects that may fall.
- If you are in a car, stop: do not park under bridges, overpasses, or near buildings.
- Indoors, the most important thing is to protect yourself from falling objects. Hide under a sturdy table, bed, or in a doorway (if the door is in a bearing wall).
- If you are on the upper floors, do not run down: the stairs may be damaged or overcrowded.
- Do not use the elevator.
- If you are trapped under rubble, try not to panic. If possible, make some signals (knock on pipes, whistle). Save your strength and wait for help.
Remember: earthquakes can happen anywhere, even in low-risk areas. Being prepared beforehand is the best way to reduce risks.
Can We Accurately Predict Earthquakes In The Future?
Authoritative opinions on this subject are divided. Some scientists believe that in the coming decades, we will be able to create short-term earthquake forecasting systems that will warn of tremors several hours or even days in advance. Others are more sceptical and admit that the question “Can earthquakes be predicted accurately?” will remain unanswered for a very long time.
Anyway, research in the field of earthquake prediction continues, and each new step in this direction brings us closer to understanding this complex and dangerous natural phenomenon.
References And Additional Information:
- Earthquakes: prediction, forecasting, and mitigation:
https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/earthquake-briefing - How earthquakes work: https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/earthquake7.html
- Earthquake prediction: https://topex.ucsd.edu/es10/es10.1997/lectures/lecture21/secs.with.pics/node4.html
- Earthquakes in Japan: what to know before you go: https://www.jrailpass.com/blog/earthquakes-in-japan
- Global earthquake prediction systems: https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=98884
Thank you for your comment! It will be visible on the site after moderation.