IPCC Chief Jim Skea: “It’s Too Late To Stop The UK And World Overheating”

Professor Jim Skea, Chief of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cautions that the world is on track for a 3°C rise in global temperatures by 2100 unless urgent action is taken. 

As Skea told The Telegraph in an interview, humanity has already lost the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and it will now require “heroic efforts” to prevent temperatures from exceeding 2°C by the end of the century.

“We are potentially headed towards 3C of global warming by 2100 if we carry on with the policies we have at the moment,” underscored Skea.

Consequences Will Be Worldwide

Scientists warn that the combined effects of heat and humidity will be one of the greatest dangers in many areas. As a result, deserts could form in southern Europe. 

“All of Europe is at risk, particularly the Mediterranean region. We are already witnessing desertification, not just in North Africa, but along the southern edges of Europe, such as in Greece, Portugal, and Turkey,” Skea explained.

Rising temperatures won’t just lead to warmer weather. According to the IPCC reports, the added heat will drive more extreme weather events, raise sea levels, and make farming more difficult and less productive.

Effects On The UK?

The Met Office’s predictions confirm Skea’s words about significant changes of overheating for the UK. By 2070, winter temperatures could rise by up to 4.5°C, while rainfall is expected to increase by 30%. This could lead to more frequent flooding. In contrast, summer temperatures could increase by as much as 6°C, bringing more droughts and a sharp rise in heat-related deaths.

Any Chance Of A Minimal Warming Scenario?

Under the Paris Agreement, each country was expected to increase its future emission reductions. However, the commitments made so far indicate almost no real reduction. As a result, the world could continue to emit nearly 60 billion tonnes of CO2 annually for the foreseeable future.

Under such conditions, the likelihood of sticking to the minimal warming scenario isn’t very promising, according to Prof Skea. He pointed out an important graph in the IPCC’s latest report, stressing the difficulties in reaching this goal.

This graph highlights how humanity now emits around 60 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere annually, a significant increase from 40 billion tonnes just 20 years ago. To stay below the 1.5°C limit, we should have started cutting emissions five years ago. This would require reducing emissions by 25 billion tonnes by 2030 and over 40 billion tonnes by 2040. Skea acknowledged that this level of reduction is huge and unrealistic.

“Those reductions should have started from 2019. It means 1.5C is slipping away from us,” he added.

Jim Skea And The IPCC

Jim Skea spoke at a summit organised by the Zemo Partnership, which he co-founded 21 years ago while at Sussex University. He has since become a Professor of Sustainable Energy at Imperial College and a founding member of the UK Government’s Climate Change Committee.

He is now the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body responsible for producing scientific reports that form the foundation for governmental climate policies worldwide.

The IPCC was established by the UN in 1988, and its early warnings were often met with skepticism from politicians, the fossil fuel industry, and some scientists. However, extensive research by thousands of scientists has provided strong evidence backing the IPCC’s findings, making such criticisms rare. 

Initially, the IPCC sought to determine whether human activity caused climate change. Now, that question has been settled, and the focus has shifted to what actions should be taken in response.

So, Who Is Responsible For Climate Change?

According to Prof Skea, politicians, rather than scientists, are responsible for addressing climate change. While there may still be a chance to avoid extreme warming that could make life difficult for billions, the outcome depends on the decisions made by our leaders.

“Frankly, it’s down to human agency and choice. It’s our politicians, our political system, that can choose or can choose not to implement the measures that we need,” Chief of IPCC concluded.