Second Major Solar Flare Of The Year Erupts: Will It Lead To A Geomagnetic Storm In The Coming Days?

On Monday, 1 October, at 22:20 UTC, an X7.1-class solar flare, the second-largest of Solar Cycle 25, erupted from Earth-facing sunspot AR3842. The flare caused widespread radio blackouts and may have hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards Earth.

X7.1 Solar Flare Hits for the Second Time in 2024

The recent solar flare, detected by the GOES-16 satellite’s X-ray sensor (XRS), peaked at 6:20 PM EDT (2220 UTC). Although flares of this size are uncommon during the peak of the solar cycle, they are not entirely unexpected.

According to the Space Weather Prediction Center, this X7.1-class flare is the second-largest of the year, only surpassed by an X8.7 flare on 14 May. While the flare was impulsive, USAF solar radio observatory reports suggest it may be connected to a possible coronal mass ejection (CME).

What To Expect From This Solar Flare?

Scientists are still awaiting confirmation on the CME’s impact, but a solar storm is highly probable in the coming days. SWPC forecasters will review coronagraph imagery once it’s available to confirm whether a CME occurred and, if so, assess the likelihood of any Earth-directed component. 

Northern Lights Are Possible

This means part of the solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME) might be headed toward Earth. If that happens, it could cause effects like geomagnetic storms, which can impact satellites and communication systems and even cause visible auroras (northern or southern lights).

Solar Cycle 25

Solar Cycle 25 is the current cycle of the Sun’s activity, starting in December 2019 and expected to peak around 2025. During this time, the Sun experiences more sunspots and solar storms, which can affect technology on Earth, like satellites and power grids. Although Solar Cycle 25 is weaker than some past cycles, it still impacts space weather and can influence communication systems.

Stay tuned as the event is currently in progress, and we will keep an eye on any updates.