The Brightest Comet Rushing to Earth Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Will Soon Fall Apart – Scientists Report

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS was expected to be the main event of autumn 2024: it was believed to shine brighter than Jupiter and be seen with the naked eye. However, researchers report that the comet is likely to disintegrate as it approaches the Sun and will not be visible in the sky.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Is Rushing to Earth

C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS) is a comet from the Oort cloud discovered by the Purple Mountain Observatory (China) on 9 January 2023 and independently found by ATLAS (a robotic astronomical survey and early warning system for detecting smaller near-Earth objects) on 22 February 2023. It is expected to reach its perihelion at a distance of 0.39 AU (58 million km) on 27 September 2024 and is expected to be visible from the Earth with the naked eye (better visible from the Southern Hemisphere).

Since the time of discovery astronomers have been observing the comet and analyzing its trajectory while it is approaching the orbit of the Earth.

By the end of April 2024 the comet had brightened to magnitude 10 and could be observed through small telescopes, showing a short tail. In May and June the brightening rate of the comet slowed. 

What’s Going on With the Comet?

In his research, Czech-American astronomer Zdenek Sekanina suggested that the comet is likely to break up before it can be seen from Earth.

He claims that comet’s failure to brighten at a heliocentric distance exceeding 2 AU (around 300 million km), about 160 days before perihelion, is a sign that the comet nucleus has been fragmenting. Reduction in dust formation also may be the indicator of comet’s inevitable disintegration.

According to the paper: “The process of fragmentation is proposed to have begun at the latest around 21 March 2024, 190 days before perihelion and 3.3 AU (around  494 million km) from the Sun, when the rate of brightening was abruptly increased. For an Oort cloud comet such a change is unusual, because typically the rate of brightening declines with decreasing heliocentric distance.”

The scientist claims that the comet is now in the advanced stages of fragmentation and will continue the process until the point of complete deactivation and disintegration. “Given the perihelion distance of 0.39 AU, I expect that the object will disappear and cease to exist as an active comet before perihelion.”

Great Disappointment or A Breakthrough for Science?

This news may be disappointing for comet observers and space enthusiasts who wanted to see the comet with the naked eye. But this is good news for astronomers who want to better study objects from the Oort cloud. According to Sekanina, the data suggest that the comet ejects large large amounts of dry, fractured solid material far enough from the Sun to cause it to accelerate. In his opinion, the largest of these “exotically shaped blobs” (as he called it) being released could possibly look like interstellar guest Oumuamua.

Astronomers will continue observing the comet. Still, there is a possibility that it will not disintegrate when approaching the Sun and that it will be visible in the night sky.