Predicting Solar Storms: Scientists Unveil New Method to Forecast Coronal Mass Ejections

Anticipating hazardous solar storms is crucial for protecting technology from damage. While space weather can be visually stunning, as shown by the aurora in May, it can also pose significant risks, potentially causing temporary or permanent damage to technological systems.

Predicting space weather is of paramount importance, and researchers are now reporting enhanced insights into coronal mass ejections (CMEs), a critical step toward forecasting potential threats.

Understanding Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are significant expulsions of magnetic fields and plasma from the Sun. When these plasma particles collide with Earth’s magnetosphere, they can initiate geomagnetic storms, which may disrupt satellites and other technological infrastructures. The magnetic field propels these particles towards the polar regions, creating visually striking auroras when they interact with the atmosphere.

The key to predicting the severity of a solar storm lies in determining the speed of CMEs post-eruption from the Sun. Traditionally, this speed has been measured after the CME is released. However, researchers have discovered a method to predict the CME speed before eruption.

Predicting CME Speed

“There are methods to examine CMEs prior to their eruption from the Sun by analyzing the evolution of their source regions,” explained Dr. Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University, in an interview with IFLScience.

Dr. Gandhi and her team concentrated on the “active regions” of the Sun where CMEs originate. They assessed the properties of these regions before, during, and after a CME event. Their research led to the estimation of a parameter known as “critical height,” above which the magnetic field becomes unstable, causing a CME to be emitted. This critical height is correlated with the speed of the CME.

Implications for Space Weather Forecasting

“The higher the critical height identified in the corona of an active region, the faster the CME’s expected speed from that region,” Dr. Gandhi stated. By estimating this height, scientists can predict the probable speed of the CME and, consequently, its potential risk.

Global space agencies continuously observe the Sun, making these parameter estimations feasible. To enhance predictions further, the team intends to incorporate another parameter: the strength of the magnetic field, which will refine the speed estimation of the CME.

This research not only deepens our understanding of the Sun but also significantly improves our space weather forecasting capabilities. This is crucial in a technology-dependent world, especially in the event of a significant solar storm akin to the Carrington Event.

Presentation of Findings

Dr. Gandhi presented the team’s findings at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in Hull, UK. The study represents a promising advancement in predicting and mitigating the effects of dangerous solar storms.