ESA’s Ramses Mission to Track the Dangerous Asteroid: Will Apophis Strike Earth in 2029?

ESA’s Space Safety programme has received permission to begin preparatory work for its planetary defence mission – the Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety (Ramses). The Ramses mission will accompany 99942 Apophis asteroid when it passes close to our planet – even closer than TV satellites.

Ramses Mission: ESA Prepares for Asteroid’s Near-Miss with Earth

During ESA’s Ramses mission, a spacecraft will be sent to Apophis to obtain information about its size, shape, and mass. The mission also aims to analyse its surface, orbit, rotation, and how our planet’s gravity influences it. The spacecraft will reach the asteroid and accompany it through its flyby close to Earth in 2029.

Ramses needs to launch in April 2028 to arrive at Apophis in February 2029, two months before the close approach. ESA requested permission to begin preparatory work on the mission as soon as possible. This permission has been granted. The final decision will take place at ESA’s Ministerial Council Meeting in November 2025.

New Findings On Apophis’ Impact Risk

Updated on 11th September

A new study on asteroid Apophis provides updates on its threat. Initially ranked level 4 on the Torino impact scale — the highest level ever assigned to a Near-Earth Object — further observations have downgraded Apophis to level 0. This rules out any impact risks during its close approaches in 2029, 2036, and 2068.

The study also found that a small object, about 0.6 meters in size, could push Apophis into a keyhole trajectory, potentially leading to a future collision. However, such collisions are extremely rare, and space is vast enough to make this scenario highly unlikely.

Will Apophis Strike Earth in 2029?

Apophis was discovered on 19 June 2004, and from that time on, scientists considered it as potentially hazardous with a high probability of colliding with Earth in 2029. That may be the reason for its naming. The scientists who discovered the asteroid are reportedly fans of the TV series Stargate SG-1. One of the show’s villains is an alien named Apophis. He is one of the main threats to the existence of civilization on Earth. Initially, “Apophis” is the Greek name of “Apep” – an evil serpent who embodied darkness and disorder in Ancient Egyptian Mythology. 

Fortunately for our civilization, closer studies did not confirm that the asteroid will hit our planet. However, on 13 April 2029 Apophis will pass within 32 000 km from Earth’s surface – about one-tenth of the distance to the moon, closer to the Earth than the satellites used for TV broadcasting, navigation and weather forecasting. At that distance the asteroid would start to interact with Earth. The gravity field of the Earth will slightly reshape the asteroid.

On that date, it will become as bright as magnitude 3.1. If the sky is clear, it will be visible to the naked eye from rural and darker suburban areas in Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia.

Asteroid Apophis is about 375 m in diameter – bigger than the Eiffel Tower (330 m) – and can be compared to the size of a cruise liner.

What is the Osiris-Apex mission?

Ramses is not the only mission preparing to explore Apophis. NASA plans to use the spacecraft that took part in a successful Osiris-Rex mission last year to get to Apophis in 2029 – so-called Osiris-Apex mission. NASA’s spacecraft is expected to arrive at Apophis about one month after the asteroid’s Earth flyby. So, Ramses mission will study the space object before it encounters Earth, while Osiris-Apex mission will be able to observe it after and see how Earth’s gravity has influenced Apophis.

Why is it important?

The findings of the Ramses and Osiris-Apex missions will be crucial for defending our planet from potential hazards in the future. They provide a deeper understanding of the structure of asteroids and similar cosmic objects. This knowledge will enable scientists to influence these objects in case of a collision course with Earth. Furthermore, as asteroids were formed over four billion years ago, data from the mission will also offer new scientific insights into the evolution of the Solar System.